Market Intelligence
Treasury Yield Curve
The yield curve plots interest rates on U.S. Treasury securities across maturities, from one month out to thirty years.
10-second takeaway
Yield curve shape: Normal (upward-sloping)
2s10s spread: +0.38 points · 3m10y spread: +0.78 points
On August 3, 2026 (the earliest date in this ~60-trading-day snapshot), the curve was classified as Normal (upward-sloping). Use the chart’s date-comparison control below to compare the current curve against any other date in this window.
What changed: The 2s10s spread was essentially unchanged (less than 0.02 points of movement) at +0.38 between 2026-10-29 and 2026-10-30.
Investors watch the yield curve because it reflects, in one picture, what the market expects to happen to short-term interest rates, growth, and inflation over different time horizons. Under typical conditions, longer-maturity bonds pay a higher yield than shorter-maturity ones, to compensate investors for tying up money for longer and for the extra uncertainty that comes with a longer horizon — this is called a “normal” curve. When that relationship flips and short-term yields exceed long-term yields, the curve is “inverted.” An inversion has preceded most U.S. recessions since the 1960s, which is why it draws outsized attention, especially in the 2-year-to-10-year (“2s10s”) and 3-month-to-10-year (“3m10y”) pairs tracked above.
- Source
- U.S. Department of the Treasury
- Observation date
- October 30, 2026
- Last refreshed
- Nov 1, 2026, 1:52 AM UTC
Methodology — how this is calculated
Values come directly from the Treasury’s Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates feed (source feed), fetched and committed as a static, versioned snapshot — this page never fetches data at request time. The 2s10s spread is the 10-year yield minus the 2-year yield; the 3m10y spread is the 10-year yield minus the 3-month yield. A negative spread means the curve is inverted at that pair. The overall shape label uses the 2s10s spread: inverted if negative, flat if within ±0.05 percentage points of zero, normal otherwise. See docs/DECISIONS.md for the full rationale.
Limitations — what this does NOT tell you
An inverted yield curve has historically preceded many U.S. recessions, but it is not a guarantee, and the lag between an inversion and any economic slowdown has varied widely — sometimes over a year, sometimes not materializing into a recession at all. This page does not predict a recession, state one as likely, or give a timeline for one. The Treasury’s own par yields are interpolated estimates (“Constant Maturity Treasury” rates) derived from indicative bid-side quotes near the market close, not from actual executed trades, and some maturities (e.g. 1.5-month and 4-month bills) have only existed since 2008 or later — this page shows exactly what the Treasury reported for each date and omits any maturity it did not report, rather than filling a gap with a guess.
Not investment advice — not a prediction
Market Intelligence indicators describe publicly available historical data. They are not personalized investment, tax, or legal advice, and no indicator shown in this section should be read as a buy/sell signal or a guarantee about future market direction.
The current curve
Compare today’s curve against any other date in the last ~60 trading days.
Checking for a fresher refresh…
View data table
| Maturity | Oct 30, 2026 | Aug 3, 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| 1Mo | 4.06% | 3.79% |
| 1.5Mo | 4.09% | 3.82% |
| 2Mo | 4.16% | 3.87% |
| 3Mo | 4.16% | 3.91% |
| 4Mo | 4.18% | 3.94% |
| 6Mo | 4.25% | 4.02% |
| 1Yr | 4.36% | 4.07% |
| 2Yr | 4.56% | 4.25% |
| 3Yr | 4.65% | 4.32% |
| 5Yr | 4.71% | 4.40% |
| 7Yr | 4.80% | 4.54% |
| 10Yr | 4.94% | 4.70% |
| 20Yr | 5.34% | 5.23% |
| 30Yr | 5.31% | 5.23% |
Short vs. long yields, and what steepening/flattening means
A bond’s yield is the annualized return an investor earns for holding it to maturity. “Short” maturities here run from one month to about a year; “long” maturities run from five to thirty years. The curve “steepens” when long yields rise faster than (or fall slower than) short yields — often associated with expectations of stronger growth or higher future inflation. It “flattens” when that gap narrows, and “inverts” when it goes negative, as described above.
Treasury yields also feed into the price of borrowing elsewhere in the economy: mortgage rates, auto loans, and corporate bond yields all move, loosely, with the Treasury curve’s shape and level. A rise across the curve generally makes new borrowing more expensive; a fall generally makes it cheaper — though the exact relationship varies by loan type and lender.